Westpac Index Indicates Australian Economy On The Rebound
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index suggests the economy is on the rebound as commodity and equity prices rally.
The index grew by 4.2 per cent in February up from 2.7 per cent recorded in September and much higher than the long term trend rate of 2.8 per cent.
The index estimates the pace of economic activity for the next one to three quarters.
Matthew Hassan senior economist at Westpac says the results suggest economic momentum has clearly lifted since June 2012.
(It) points to moderately above trend growth in the first half of 2013. Our chief concern though is how well this will be sustained through the year, especially as the peak in mining investment approaches.
Above is a daily chart of gold (GLD) over the past 20 months and as you can see this market appears to be bouncing off of major support (green line). In the lower panel is the Gold/S&P ratio which has just broken its 4 month down trendline suggesting that money is now moving into gold and out of stocks. You’ll notice red vertical lines on the chart which are exactly the same distance apart. As you can see there seems to be a major change of sentiment that takes place in gold every 4 1/2 months. The reason I consider this significant is because gold appears to be reacting to this time cycle once again making a turning point precisely on schedule.